2025 Crypto Market Outlook: Four Scenarios and Eleven Predictions

Since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the crypto market has experienced a strong rally. Bitcoin has reached an all-time high, fueling an altcoin season, and has since entered a period of volatility. Currently, the price of Bitcoin hovers around $90,000, and the market is anticipating the next round of increases.

It is worth noting that the altcoin market often starts to surge when Bitcoin reaches new highs. The first wave was Bitcoin hitting $69,000, and the second wave was it reaching $100,000. The next round of altcoin season is expected to occur in the first quarter of 2025, after Bitcoin stabilizes at $100,000.

For the 2025 market, the following four scenarios may occur:

1. Bitcoin and altcoins are experiencing a widespread increase with a 30-40% probability.
2. Bitcoin is rising, and some quality altcoins are rising with a probability of 50-60%.
3. Bitcoin rises, altcoins generally fall (20-30% probability )
4. Bitcoin and altcoins both fell ( with a probability of 10-20% )

Due to the improving macro environment, a new round of Bitcoin all-time highs may occur sooner than 2024. The current policy environment is more favorable towards crypto assets, and the importance of Bitcoin is receiving more recognition. This creates favorable conditions for Bitcoin to continue rising in 2025.

In terms of altcoins, although the overall outlook is optimistic, caution is still needed regarding significant declines during periods without positive catalysts. A major drop similar to that of the summer of 2024 is unlikely in 2025, but a stable period similar to the current one may occur.

Overall, Bitcoin is expected to continue rising in 2025, with increases potentially exceeding those of 2024. Altcoins are generally looking positive, but volatility may be significant. Investors need to closely monitor market changes and adjust their strategies in a timely manner.

Risks worth noting include:

• The arrival of the peak of the cycle
• The Bitcoin reserve plan is progressing slower than expected.
• Supply risk ( such as large holders selling )
• Macroeconomic risks ( such as inflation rebound leading to interest rate hikes )

In terms of token selection, you can focus on:

1. AI-related: ALCH, Griffain, Digimon, etc.
2. DeFi: AAVE, ENA, Morpho, etc.
3. L1 public chains: SUI, Hype, etc.
4. NFT and game tokens: Pengu, Anime, etc.
5. Other popular tracks: data tokens, Meme, DePIN, etc.

For 2025, the following 11 predictions can be made:

1. A large company will implement the DePIN project.
2. The market share of a certain trading platform will surpass that of the existing leaders.
3. Metaverse tokens regain attention
4. ICOs are making a comeback
5. Hard to see altcoin season on the Ethereum chain
6. SUI reaches double-digit price
7. Ethereum ETF staking approved
8. Famous artists adopt NFTs and token incentives for fans
9. Bitcoin breaks through $200,000
10. More public chain founders resign
11. A certain public chain failed in the competition with L1.

In summary, the crypto market is expected to continue its upward momentum in 2025, but investors still need to cautiously manage risks and opportunities.