2025 Crypto Market Analysis

1. Macroeconomic Situation

In May 2025, the U.S. economy is at a critical turning point. Inflation continues to decline, the job market remains resilient, monetary policy enters a wait-and-see period, trade policies add uncertainty, and fiscal policy affects market expectations through operations similar to quantitative easing and adjustments in debt ratings. Against this backdrop, the crypto market demonstrates strong resilience, and the global risk asset structure may be poised for a new round of revaluation.

inflation trend

In April, the year-on-year CPI dropped to 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, indicating a continued alleviation of price pressures. The U.S. Treasury initiated a $40 billion Treasury bond repurchase operation, seen as a "quasi-QE" measure aimed at releasing liquidity and refinancing at low interest rates, becoming an important factor supporting the prices of risk assets.

job market

In April, non-farm employment increased by 177,000, exceeding expectations and reflecting resilience in the employment market. This provides a basis for the Federal Reserve to maintain a wait-and-see policy, while also easing market concerns about a recession, but it also reduces the likelihood of multiple unexpected rate cuts within the year.

monetary policy

The chairman of the Federal Reserve stated that it will reevaluate the current monetary policy framework and may abandon the "average inflation targeting" mechanism. In the future, the Federal Reserve may extend the period of high-interest rates and even increase its holdings of medium- and long-term government bonds through balance sheet expansion to control the rise in long-term rates. The policy tone will be more flexible, and there is no urgency for preemptive rate cuts in the short term.

Trade Policy and Global Economy

In early May, news about the European Union imposing tariffs on goods triggered market fluctuations. The People's Bank of China implemented a "reserve requirement ratio cut + interest rate cut" policy, releasing 1 trillion yuan in liquidity, which is seen as the beginning of a new round of easing cycle, raising market expectations for an improvement in Sino-American relations.

2. Crypto Market Overview

volume analysis

As of May 27, the market's average daily trading volume was $117.4 billion, an increase of 15.8% compared to the previous period. During the two phases from May 6 to 12 and from May 21 to 22, the trading volume surged, with a single-day trading volume exceeding $180 billion at one point, during which Bitcoin's price broke through $100,000 and $110,000.

market cap change

As of May 27, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies reached $3.56 trillion, an increase of 17.0% compared to last month. Bitcoin's market share is 62.6%, while Ethereum's is 9.6%, with the latter showing a growth of 29.7% compared to the previous period, indicating an increased preference for allocation of funds towards Ethereum.

Popular New Coins

Among the popular tokens launched in May, venture-backed projects dominate, including Layer 2 projects SOPH and B2. Additionally, USD1 emerged as a hot narrative in May, with related projects such as B, Lista, and Staketone receiving widespread attention.

3. On-chain Data Analysis

ETF capital flow

In May, Bitcoin ETF net inflow was approximately $5.77 billion, while Ethereum ETF net inflow was around $317 million. The price of Bitcoin rose from $94,212 at the beginning of the month to $108,969, an increase of about 13.5%. The price of Ethereum increased from $1,794 to $2,635, a rise of 31.9%.

stablecoin market

In May, the total circulation of stablecoins in the crypto market increased by approximately $7.28 billion, with the main growth coming from USDT, USDE, and DAI.

4. Main Crypto Market Price Analysis

Bitcoin ( BTC )

Bitcoin prices remain above $109,588, indicating strong buying interest. If it breaks through $111,980, it could rise to $130,000. The support level below is near the 20-day moving average ($104,886), and if it drops below this, it may retrace to $100,000.

Ethereum ( ETH )

Ethereum rebounded from the 20-day moving average at ($2,425), with bullish targets aiming to break through $2,738. If successful, it could rise to $3,000. Support below is at $2,323 and $2,111.

Solana ( SOL )

Solana found support at the 20-day moving average ($169), with the bullish target being to break through $188. If successful, it could rise to $210 or even $220. The support below is around the 50-day moving average ($151).

5. Hot Events

USD1 ecological development

As of May 28, the market capitalization of the USD1 stablecoin has surpassed $2.1 billion, making it the seventh largest stablecoin. USD1 is issued by WLFI, led by the Trump family, and is the first stablecoin project to receive a presidential endorsement. Related ecological projects such as Buildon and Lista DAO have seen significant increases in token prices.

The rise of the Believe platform

The core token of the Believe platform, Launchcoin, has seen a significant price surge, with its market value nearing $310 million at one point. The platform emphasizes the concept of "social assetization," allowing users to issue tokens through the X platform. However, the drastic drop of the overly supported token $YAPPER has sparked controversy, leading to a decline in ecological activity.

6. Future Outlook

Stablecoin Bill Progress

The "GENIUS Act" has entered the revision process and is expected to complete legislation by Q4 2024. The bill involves aspects such as issuance qualifications, reserve requirements, and compliance obligations, aiming to strengthen the international status of the US dollar stablecoin.

Ethereum ETF pledge approval

The U.S. SEC has postponed its decision on Ethereum ETF staking, with a deadline set for the end of October. Hong Kong has approved certain Ethereum ETFs for staking, and the market expects that U.S. regulators will also reach a framework for the relevant mechanism soon. Once approved, it could drive a new wave of market enthusiasm for Ethereum and related assets such as Lido and Eigen.