Bitcoin fell back after reaching a high of $112,000, and may trade sideways before the end of August.

Market Overview

The tax reform bill promoted by the Trump administration has passed in the House of Representatives and is expected to be officially signed on July 5. Although the bill could lead to an increase of $3.4 trillion in U.S. debt, the strong performance of non-farm employment data in June supports the implementation of the policy. The employment report shows an increase of 147,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%, prompting the market to lower its expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July.

However, Goldman Sachs analysts hold a different view, having lowered their forecast for U.S. Treasury yields and maintained that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates consecutively in September, October, and December. They pointed out that job growth mainly relies on local government hiring, and the labor participation rate is weak.

Against this background, the Bitcoin market is sensitive to reactions. After the non-farm payroll data was released, the Bitcoin price briefly surged to $110,000 but failed to break through. Nevertheless, several analysts maintain an optimistic view on Bitcoin's medium to long-term prospects. One analyst predicts that Bitcoin could rise to $116,000 by the end of this month, while others have set a high price expectation of $170,000.

However, short-term risks remain. There are a large number of sell orders around $112,000, creating strong resistance. Technical analysis shows that bearish signals have appeared around $110,500. Some analysts warn that due to the impact of Trump's tax cut plan, dollar liquidity may contract in the short term, and Bitcoin prices could fall to the range of $90,000 to $95,000. It is expected that before the end of August, the market may move sideways or decline slightly, and only after liquidity recovers in early September might there be a rise.

The altcoin market is showing mixed performance, with some tokens experiencing slight increases, while the majority are still declining. It is worth noting that some emerging tokens such as $PENGU, $LuckyCoin, and $invest have seen significant gains recently.

Key Data (as of July 4, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $109,188 (Year-to-date +16.61%), Daily trading volume $28.786 billion
• Ethereum: $2,579.71 (Year-to-date -22.81%), Daily trading volume $18.035 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 73 (Greed)
• Market share: BTC 64.5%, ETH 9.2%
• Total liquidations in the last 24 hours: 193 million USD

ETF fund flows (as of July 3)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$602 million
• Ethereum ETF: +$149 million

Market Outlook

During the U.S. Independence Day period, financial market activities are expected to be relatively calm. The cryptocurrency market may continue to fluctuate within the current range, and investors should closely monitor the breakout situation at the resistance level of $112,000. At the same time, U.S. macroeconomic data and policy trends will continue to influence market sentiment, potentially bringing short-term volatility.

In terms of altcoins, the performance of emerging tokens is worth paying attention to, but investors should cautiously assess their potential risks. Overall, the market is still in a wait-and-see state, awaiting clearer directional signals.