Crypto Assets Whale Holdings Analysis: Mainstream Assets Favored, Alts Under Pressure

In the rapidly changing Crypto Assets market, the movements of large investors often become significant indicators of market direction. Through an in-depth analysis of the latest leaderboard data from a certain decentralized derivatives exchange, we can glimpse the true flow of "smart money". As of July 30, the large holders on the exchange's leaderboard collectively held positions worth $4.6 billion, with long positions dominating at $3 billion. However, behind this seemingly optimistic overall data lies a starkly different investment strategy: traders generally hold a positive outlook on mainstream assets like BTC and ETH, while simultaneously shorting many small-cap tokens and MEME coins. What does this evident divergence indicate for the market outlook?

Overall Trend: Bullish Advantage Remains, but Enthusiasm has Cooled

From a macroeconomic perspective, bullish forces currently dominate. As of July 30, the total holdings of top traders are approximately $4.6 billion, with long positions around $3 billion and short positions about $1.57 billion, resulting in an overall long-short ratio of approximately 66%.

However, behind the optimistic data, there are also some signals that are worth being cautious about. Firstly, the bullish trend has shown signs of decline, with the long-short ratio retreating from the 76% high on July 27. Secondly, in terms of profitability efficiency, the performance of shorts is more outstanding: among the tokens that large holders are bearish on, as much as 79% of the positions are in profit; whereas for the tokens they are bullish on, this ratio is only 53.5%. This indicates that, although large holders generally tend to be bullish, their short-term bearish decisions often yield profits more easily.

In addition, a certain data platform shows that among the top 125 wallet addresses of the exchange, the short positions have shifted to the main players, which has diverged from the smaller wallet addresses. The positions of smaller amount addresses generally still indicate a bullish sentiment.

Whale Strategy: Favor the Mainstream, Short the Alts

The core strategy divergence among large holders is reflected in their token choices, presenting a clear picture of "favoring mainstream coins and shorting small coins."

In terms of mainstream assets, whales have shown a firm bullish stance. Taking BTC and ETH, which have the highest holdings, as examples, their long-short ratios are far above 66%. Specifically for BTC, the total long position amounts to 1.2 billion USD, while the short position is only 479 million USD. Interestingly, the average liquidation distance for short positions is as long as 48.3%, much higher than the 14% for longs, suggesting that many short positions may not simply be bearish, but rather hedge orders used for risk management. Additionally, tokens like TON (19.83 million USD position) and AAVE (25.18 million USD position) also have high long-short ratios, becoming some of the few small-cap coins favored by whales.

However, the attitude of the whales towards small market cap and MEME coins is completely opposite. A series of tokens including FARTCOIN, PUMP, DOGE, SUI, BONK, PEPE, and even BNB have a long-to-short ratio below 50%, indicating that shorts are in the dominant position. For tokens like MOODENG, SYRUP, S, and JUP, the long-to-short ratio is even less than 10%, showing extreme bearish sentiment. These short positions are generally in a profitable state, further confirming the effectiveness of the whales' short-selling decisions.

In terms of BTC, 71.7% of traders in the leaderboard hold long positions, totaling 1.2 billion USD. The average entry price is approximately 114,000 USD, with an average liquidation distance of 14%, resulting in an overall profit of 27.82 million USD. Short positions are relatively fewer, around 479 million USD, with an average entry price of 115,000 USD, but the average liquidation distance is as high as 48.3%, further supporting the idea that the large holders' short positions may be more hedging in nature.

From the perspective of position size, the average long position of BTC whales is 10 million dollars, while the average short position is about 7.98 million dollars.

Top Traders: Long-term Optimism, Short-term Caution

In addition to overall data, the strategies of top traders can also give us insight into market trends.

The trader with the highest profits on the exchange currently has a total profit of approximately $54.86 million, with a profit curve that has been trending upwards since December 2024, demonstrating a robust and enduring trading style. His holdings are currently balanced between longs and shorts, each approximately $63 million. In terms of specific token selection, he tends to hold mostly short positions and a few long positions. Among them, the most unrealized profit is from the FARTCOIN short position, which was shorted at $1.44, with current unrealized gains reaching $1.12 million. Out of his 16 profitable orders, only 2 are long positions. The AAVE long position has an unrealized profit of $976,000. His overall strategy aligns with big data trends, maintaining long positions on BTC and ETH, but taking a bearish stance on small-cap coins in the short term.

The second-ranked trader is currently making a profit of about 35 million dollars. This trader is clearly bullish on the long-term market, holding all long positions, and the overall leverage ratio is only 3.6 times. From a cyclical perspective, he is a long-term trader, with the opening price for ETH long positions at 2812 dollars, BTC long positions at 110,000 dollars, and SOL at 142 dollars, nearly all being long-term holdings. However, his long-term long positions are not all profitable; FARTCOIN has an unrealized loss of 235,000 dollars, BIGTIME has an unrealized loss of 45,000 dollars, and STRK has an unrealized loss of 18,000 dollars. Other orders are in a profitable state, with just the ETH long positions contributing an unrealized profit of 7.21 million dollars.

The trader ranked third has actually realized a profit of 40 million USD, placing him second. This trader has 78% of his positions in shorts and seems to prefer short-term trading, with an average holding time of less than 2 hours. Currently, his position size is relatively small, possibly indicating a wait-and-see approach.

In summary, the holdings data of large investors depicts a market landscape of "favoring mainstream, shorting small coins." Although the overall position leans towards bullish, this bullish sentiment is mainly concentrated on a few core assets like BTC and ETH, and its advantage has shown a declining trend. At the same time, large investors have numerous short positions in small-cap coins, with a higher profit ratio, indicating their general bearishness and effective harvesting of high-risk assets. From the perspective of top traders' personal strategies, long-term investors remain optimistic and patient, while short-term traders tend to be more cautious about shorting or holding coins on the sidelines. For ordinary investors, understanding the "dual" strategy of large investors may be more important than simply following bullish or bearish directions.