The market faces multiple challenges: technical oversold vs macro weakness. Can the rebound be sustained?

Recently, the Bitcoin market has shown signs of adjustment, with multiple analysis institutions releasing reports indicating that the current market is facing multiple challenges.

According to the latest weekly report from Matrixport, Bitcoin's recent momentum has weakened, trading volume has shrunk, and funding rates remain low, indicating signs of loosening in the market structure.

From a technical perspective, the support level at $112,000 is facing a test, and if it is lost, it may further decline to the $106,000 range. Although short-term technical indicators show oversold signals suggesting a potential rebound, analysts are more inclined to believe that prices will continue to consolidate sideways.

The market weakness is due to the influence of multiple factors. The US ISM Manufacturing Index has contracted for several consecutive months, and the expansion of the non-manufacturing sector is also limited. Furthermore, employment data has been significantly revised downwards. These key indicators have deteriorated, clearly suppressing investors' risk appetite.

Despite the increasing market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, no clear signals have emerged. Additionally, the shrinking net asset value of publicly listed companies holding large amounts of Bitcoin may limit their ability to continue accumulating through stock issuance, which adds additional pressure to the market.

The report from 10x Research further confirms the cautious sentiment in the market. The agency points out that the current market faces challenges such as volatility compression, seasonal weakness, and a lack of macro driving factors, which raises doubts about the sustainability of the recent rebounds in Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Although the new policy for cryptocurrency investment in 401(k) accounts promoted by the Trump administration in recent days and the increased attention on gold may change market sentiment, the market reaction has been relatively subdued so far. Ethereum, while showing record address activity and price increases, is seen by analysts as being driven more by narrative rather than fundamental support.

Overall, both major institutions believe that the cryptocurrency market is at a critical technical juncture. Bitcoin and Ethereum are both near key price levels that could determine future trends, with momentum potentially accelerating upward or significantly stagnating.

Investors need to closely monitor the gains and losses at the support level of $112,000, while also paying attention to changes in macro factors such as U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve policy trends. In the current environment, maintaining patience and waiting for clearer market signals may be a more prudent strategy.

#Analyst's View