Global Market Fluctuation and Crypto Assets Market Analysis

Recently, the global market has been fluctuating under the influence of multiple factors. The U.S. tariff policy has undergone a dramatic shift, economic data shows potential recession risks, while Bitcoin seems to be brewing new highs, and the market is also starting to waft the scent of "Altcoin Season." This article will analyze the current market situation from the perspective of data indicators, exploring the possible changes in Bitcoin's dominance and the arrival of "Altcoin Season."

Macroeconomic Situation

Changes in Tariff Policy

The Trump administration's tariff policy towards China has experienced significant fluctuations. Initially, tariffs were raised to as high as 145%, but they have now been reduced to 30% with a 90-day suspension period. Although the market has reacted positively to this, it is important to note that the global effective tariff rate remains at a high level of 17.8%, far exceeding the 2.5% rate when Trump took office.

In the long term, the tariff policy seems to aim at rebalancing the trade relationship between China and the United States while meeting the demands for domestic manufacturing to return. It is expected that tariff rates will be difficult to return to the previous low levels.

Economic recession risk

Before the tariff suspension, multiple soft data indicated an increasing risk of economic recession:

• ISM Manufacturing Index falls into contraction zone
• Consumer confidence index is at a low level.
• Inflation expectations are rising
• The number of layoffs has significantly increased.
• Port cargo volume decrease

However, the 90-day tariff suspension may temporarily alleviate concerns about a short-term recession. Currently, hard data still shows that the economy remains strong, but soft data may eventually be reflected in the actual figures.

Crypto Assets Market Analysis

The crypto market is most sensitive to changes in liquidity conditions. The current market seems to anticipate the following trends:

• Government fiscal spending remains high.
• Large-scale debt refinancing demand
• Potential tax cuts and regulatory easing policies
• The decline in inflation creates conditions for interest rate cuts.

These factors may drive improvements in liquidity conditions and increase the likelihood of the "altcoin season" arriving. Recently, there has been a sustained rise in altcoins and Meme coins, and Bitcoin's dominance seems to have peaked.

"Shanzhai Coin Season" characteristics

The key factors for determining the arrival of the "Altcoin Season" include:

• At the end of the cycle
• Bitcoin's dominance rate initially ranged from 65% to 70%
• Monetary policy shifts from tightening to easing
• ETH/BTC ratio rises
• Retail investors' interest has rebounded.

The market is still in its early stages, with room for the ETH/BTC ratio and ETH price to rise, and the Federal Reserve has not yet shifted to a loose monetary policy.

Investment Strategy Recommendations

In light of the current market situation, it is recommended to adopt the following strategies:

1. Be cautious about the current Bitcoin price.
2. Reallocate part of the profits to high-risk assets
3. Pay attention to asset types that perform excellently at the end of the cycle.
4. Look for tokens with strong communities and low circulation.
5. Focus on high-quality DeFi projects and top Meme coins

Risk Warning

Investors should be aware of the following risks:

• The failure of Bitcoin to break through its historical high may impact the overall market.
• The summer market may experience Fluctuation or consolidation.
• The rise in long-term bond yields may affect valuations.
• The progress of stablecoin legislation may affect the entire Crypto Assets market.

In addition, with the price increase, risks such as hacker attacks, hidden leverage, and scams may also rise. Investors should carefully choose assets and seize investment opportunities.