Altcoin overall does not want to focus on the technical aspects, only on the psychological aspects: First, why did it not rise from August to November last year, and after November 5th, there was a huge pump? I think at that time, the market makers viewed Trump's ascension as a profitable opportunity, wanting to leverage Trump's fame and events to make money, and even considered it as the last chance for a pump. Because the rapid pump by the market makers was to make money, believing that there are retail investors coming in.

Secondly, why have altcoins been falling since December last year? Because, just like in March last year, Bitcoin was pumped from over 40,000 to 73,000, and then it kept falling.
Third, during the wave of altcoin rises from April to May, there was generally not much pump, only three to four times, and it quickly went down. Only a few pumped to 10 times, and the reason for the 10 times pump was that some altcoin whales had more positions, so they pumped a bit more to recover losses.
So many market makers have already made up for the losses from the previous months' decline during the wave in May.
Fourth, the wave from May to July is also very strange, altcoins are purely declining, while Bitcoin and Ethereum are not purely declining. Why are they still purely declining? In July, Ethereum rose from 2100 to 3800, almost doubling, while altcoins only doubled, which is very abnormal. Why is the increase so small? Every day these small increments? These small increments make it very hard to make money and difficult to hold. This can be explained because the altcoin market makers raised the price, and retail investors directly sold off, all knowing that Bitcoin and Ethereum are relatively high. Therefore, the altcoin market makers are not really pushing up. Now, in the current situation of the altcoin market makers, Bitcoin is uncertain whether it is in the third wave or the fourth wave, and Ethereum is uncertain how much this small cycle will end after going up. The best approach is to play small increments, small rises, and small falls.
Assuming Ethereum rises to around 4100, then drops a bit, falling to 3100 or 3300. First, it definitely won’t drop in one day; it needs to fall for about two weeks. So, what will happen to altcoins? My assumption is that relatively strong altcoins will drop above the April low, while weaker altcoins will directly break below the April low.
If the overall performance of altcoins is contrary to what I said, and during the process of Ethereum's decline, altcoins haven't really dropped much, how do we explain that? It can only be explained that the market makers for altcoins are very keen on accumulating chips at this price level. Following this, there must be a rapid pump, both fast and high, aiming for a trend like that in November. Because if Ethereum drops below 4100 again this time, it will be the third time, and retail investors all know they should run at 4100. If everyone runs, the market makers shouldn't be buying up. So before reaching 4100, we should see if the market makers for altcoins are rushing to exit, which means starting now and over the next few days, we should see if the market makers are trying to escape. In short, I don't think that starting from now, whether Ethereum rises to 4100 or 4500, altcoins will make any good profits.
That being said, if in July Ethereum fluctuated between 2100 and 3800 and altcoins generally increased fivefold or tenfold, what does that indicate? It indicates that altcoin market makers are eager to make profits and to exit, suggesting that they are offloading their positions. This means that the altcoin market makers do not expect Bitcoin and Ethereum to rise further. Moreover, this is happening under a situation where there is still over a month until the expected interest rate cut in September, which demonstrates a preemptive exit. The current reality, however, is contrary to this expectation, so I believe that altcoin market makers generally do not intend to exit at the moment. Therefore, the logic exists: every day they maintain the market without a significant pump, the altcoin market makers have to invest more money to sustain the market. The longer it drags on, the greater the probability of a significant pump until it reaches one hundred percent.
The above does not include external sudden big thunder and black swans.
We only need to consider our cost of holding positions. The first type is like the market, where the lows are constantly being raised. When there is a pullback, its lows are also getting higher and higher. The second type is the golden pit, which is the pit of the pullback after Ethereum rises to over 4000. The third type is the golden needle, where there is a sudden large drop, and buying at the bottom leads to a quick profit. The fourth type is a combination of the golden pit and the golden needle.
Is it the first type? We will know in a couple of days. Right now, I just need to wait here, and then in a few days, we can determine whether it is the first type or not.
So let's assume that it's not the first scenario, is it the second, third, or fourth? What we're looking at is whether the golden pit has formed before the black swan event.
If Ethereum suddenly had a long bullish candle on the day it reached 4100, it indicates that the altcoin market makers want to exit. Therefore, the first option can be directly excluded. Whoever enters after this long bullish candle will face losses. The way this bullish candle traps people could be by creating a hook or by forming a double top two or three days later. By combining this with subsequent time progress, an early prediction can be made.