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- 🎉 Hey Gate Square friends! Non-stop perks and endless excitement—our hottest posting reward events are ongoing now! The more you post, the more you win. Don’t miss your exclusive goodies! 🚀
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August 11 – 20, 2025
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Buddies, the trends in the crypto world for the second half of the year are actually hidden in a few unavoidable variables. First, let's talk about the looming threat of tariffs; the third round of negotiations between China and the U.S. has just concluded, and it seems likely that the 90-day exemption period will be extended. However, inflation has already surged to 2.8%, which means that interest rate cuts will definitely be delayed, and if we can see even one cut before the end of the year, that would be a blessing.
Looking at the US dollar again, it has fallen from 110 at the beginning of the year to 96. This weak dollar cycle is likely to last until mid-2026. Old players understand that historical data shows when the dollar weakens, Bitcoin tends to rise. Standard Chartered has set a target of 200,000, but I actually think this number is conservative.
The Federal Reserve is still playing dead, with a 95.7% probability of holding steady at the meeting on July 30. Powell is clearly holding on until he steps down, and the real policy shift will likely depend on the chairman nomination in December.
The ceasefire notice between Russia and Ukraine for 50 days seems more like a trap. Putin has gathered 160,000 troops, and there's no chance of reaching an agreement before September 2nd. If a 100% tariff is really imposed, funds will definitely rush to buy Bitcoin for hedging.
It's good that US regulators finally spoke plainly; the CLARITY Act assigned BTC and ETH to the CFTC, and even DeFi coding and running nodes can be exempt from SEC regulation. The compliance crowd has finally waited for spring.
However, listed companies need to be careful with the coin hoarding trend. MSTR's flywheel looks appealing, but 35 companies have hoarded 920,000 BTC. When the tide goes out, those who followed the trend will definitely be the first to be caught naked.
The rhythm for the second half of the year is very clear: on July 30, watch the Federal Reserve's indecision, on August 1, focus on the EU's ultimatum regarding tariffs, and on September 2, wait for the deadline for the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Ultimately, a weak dollar is the real driving force, everything else is just noise. How much can Bitcoin reach by the end of the year? Everyone can look forward to it.