Ethereum faces the "ultimate fortress" at $4800 as Spot ETF sees net outflows for the first time this week; technical warnings signal a 20% pullback risk | ETH price prediction

Ethereum (ETH) has entered a critical game period after reaching its highest point since 2021. Two contradictory signals have emerged: 1) The US spot Ethereum ETF ended eight consecutive days of net inflows ($3.7 billion in total), recording a net outflow of $5.934 million on August 15, with Grayscale (ETHE) and Fidelity (FETH) being the main outflow parties; 2) On-chain order book data shows a massive sell wall near $4,800 (referred to by analysts as the "Final Boss"), breaking through this resistance could trigger a parabolic rise. Technical analysis warns of pullback risks: the 4-hour chart shows $4,700-$4,800 as a strong supply zone, combined with structural breakout signals, fair value gaps (FVG), and Fibonacci retracement levels, ETH may retest the $3,375 support, with a potential decline exceeding 20%.

ETF Fund Flow Reversal, Institutional Enthusiasm Temporarily Pauses?

The continuous push for ETH's rise has seen a critical turning point in the flow of funds for the Spot ETF. Data shows that on August 15, the overall net outflow of the U.S. Spot Ethereum ETF recorded $59.34 million, ending a strong performance of eight consecutive days of net inflows (totaling $3.7 billion). Although BlackRock's ETHA still saw an inflow of $338 million in a single day, significant redemptions from Grayscale's ETHE (outflow of $101.7 million) and Fidelity's FETH (outflow of $272.2 million) dominated the net outflow pattern. This reversal in fund flow coincided with ETH's unsuccessful attempt to hit the historical high of $4,878 (peaking at $4,788), after which it fell back to around $4,450. This may suggest that some institutional investors chose to take profits as the price approached historical highs.

4800 USD: The "Ultimate Fortress" on the Order Book

The on-chain liquidity distribution reveals the biggest obstacle for ETH's upward movement. Renowned trader Merlijn pointed out that there are billions of dollars worth of sell orders piled up around the $4800 mark in the ETH/USDT trading pair on mainstream CEXs, creating a massive resistance wall akin to a "Final Boss." The liquidity heat map clearly shows an extremely dense concentration of sell orders (Ask Concentration) in that area. Analysts believe:

• Resistance Effect: As long as sell orders dominate this area, any upward attempt may be blocked here.
• Significance of the breakthrough: If sufficient buying volume can conquer this stronghold, it will not only be a technical breakthrough but will also create a significant psychological breakthrough, opening up space for ETH to reach historical highs and even pump in a parabolic manner.

Technical Alert: Multiple Signals Indicate Deep Pullback Risk

Despite liquidity analysis leaning towards a breakout expectation, TradingView's 4-hour chart Technical Analysis sounds the alarm:

1. Strong resistance confirmation: The $4700-4800 region has been identified as a high supply resistance area, and ETH has shown signs of fatigue after a rapid rise in early August.
2. Bearish Technical Resonance:

• Break of Structure: Indicates that the trend may reverse.
• Fair Value Gap (FVG): There is a demand for price recovery.
• Fibonacci pullback levels: indicate deep pullback targets.

3. Potential downward path: Analysis predicts that ETH may pull back to the strong support level of 3375 USD (the potential decline exceeds 20% based on the current price). The strategy suggests an entry point of about 4440 USD, with a stop-loss set above 4790 USD.

Conclusion

Ethereum is currently at a crossroads in choosing its short-term direction. The first reversal of spot ETF fund flows, along with the massive sell wall at $4800, jointly constitutes a double pressure on price upward movement. If institutional fund inflows cannot quickly recover, or if the market buying power is unable to digest the selling pressure at the $4800 "ultimate fortress," the risk of a deep pullback to $3375 indicated by technical analysis will significantly increase. Conversely, if it can effectively break through and stabilize above $4800, it is expected to trigger FOMO sentiment and start the journey towards new historical highs. Investors should closely monitor ETF fund flows, the dynamics of the $4800 order book, and changes in trading volume. The short-term strategy should prioritize risk control and wait for confirmation of breakthroughs in key resistance/support areas.